Should I blindly follow the star ratings?
The star rating formula has been back-tested using over 1,000,000 picks. These tests strongly suggest that all star ratings can be blindly followed to gain a profit. That means you can play each and every pick that is given at least one star - without doing any further thinking or filtering - and you should expect to profit in the long term. Though that doesn't mean that blindly following these picks is your best strategy. You'd probably be better off applying your own filters, or maybe even only playing the picks from one or two of the best tipsters.
Tipster Rankings & Statistics
How often are the rankings updated?
The rankings are updated once per hour.
Why am I not in the tipster rankings?
Only tipsters with 20 or more graded tips show up in the rankings, and newly eligible users are added to the rankings every hour, so you will show up within one hour after your 20th pick has been graded. Note, however, that the default rankings show tipsters who have made 100 or more tips, so if you have only made 20 tips then you will need to customize the rankings in order to see yourself.
Why did my rankings position change so dramatically?
The rankings page, by default, uses results from the past year, so if you had a really terrible week this week combined with a really awesome week over the same period last year (which is now dropped from the rankings) then this will lead to a large difference.
What is projected ROI and how is it calculated?
projected ROI is short for projected return on investment. It is a unique metric that - by utilizing the confidence metric - tells you how successful a tipster is likely to be on any given pick in the future. If a tipster has a projected ROI of 4.21%, for example, then you'd expect a future $100 play from that tipster to win $4.21 and return $104.21 on average.
projected ROI is different than standard ROI in that it doesn't just assume that your current ROI will translate to your future ROI. In fact, it is mathematically certain that projected ROI will always be less than standard ROI. This is intentional, because we like to be conservative with the expectations that we set.
A tipster's projected ROI tries to answer the question "if I jumped on board with this tipster at any given time how should I expect him to perform?" It does not necessarily answer the question "if I stick with this tipster for a long period of time how should I expect him to perform, on average, through the duration?" For certain accounts it probably greatly underestimates this value, but this is better than the reverse.
projected ROI = ROI * confidence
What is confidence and how is it calculated?
confidence is the most innovative and unique metric that Pick Monitor offers, and it's what makes the invaluable Projected ROI possible. confidence aims to answer the question "how likely is it that this tipster's future results will be similar to his past results?"
The formula is a bit complicated, but luckily there's no need to understand it. For all you nerds out there, here it is:
confidence = prob(z) * r^2 * [min(500,num_picks)/500]
- prob(z) is the two-tailed confidence interval of a given z score with a margin of error of 0.001.
- r^2 is the coefficient of determination. Essentially, it tells you how consistent a tipster has been. This is an important factor in determining whether a tipster has achieved his results through luck or through skill.
- The last part of the equation is used to devalue accounts with less than 500 tips. This minimum number of plays does not aim to represent a number of statistical significance but rather just has to be high enough to let the other confidence factors do their jobs.
What are cappermetrics?
Cappermetrics are advanced tipster statistics that allow you to see a tipster's true colors, much beyond the simple win % that most sites show. These metrics expose the weak tipsters and highlight the strong tipsters. They aren't included on the rankings page because they don't do quite as good of a job as projected ROI and confidence but you can find them for each tipster on his profile page.
What are the cappermetric variables and what do they mean?
Wins (W): Total number of wins.
Losses (L): Total number of losses.
Units Won (U): The actual amount of units won or lost by a tipster.
Effective Units (eU): eU = (U / AUR) * 3. eU adjusts the profit numbers to allow for easy comparison between tipsters. By normalizing every bet to 3 units each the eU number can not be artificially boosted by simply making a maximum bet on every game. By using eU, it is easy to compare a tipster who bets 5 units on every game to one who bets 1 units on every game.
Win Percentage (WP): WP is perhaps the most over valued, and concurrently the least valuable statistic that we offer. A lot of people put a lot of stock in WP. Don't.
Effective Win Percentage (eWP): eWP is the win percentage equivalent to if every bet was made on a -110 line. eWP is a much better way to evaluate a tipster than WP.
Return on Investment (ROI): ROI = P / (total amount risked). ROI, like eU, can not be exploited by betting large amounts.
Z Score (Z): Z score is a predictor of future success. The higher your absolute Z score, the more likely that your results were gained by skill than by luck. Z is imprecise at low sample sizes.
Average Odds per Tip (AOP): The average odds taken on each pick. For example, -110 or +145.
Average Units Risked per Tip (AUR): The average amount risked on each pick.
Average Daily Tips (ADP): The average number of tips released per day. This only takes into account days where at least one pick was made, so your ADP will not go down if you take time off.
General Account Stuff
Do I need an account to use Pick Monitor?
We tried to design the site to let non-users enjoy as many features as possible. That being said, there are tons of things that simply aren't possible without an account. For example, without an account you won't be able to talk in our forums, track your tips, etc. Account registration is quick, easy and free, and your information is kept confidential.
What's the Follow button on each tipster's profile?
Click that button to follow as many members as you want and get every pick by all of your tipsters conveniently in one place with the option of getting them emailed to you as well. The follow button allows you to add or remove tipsters from your list. Though please note that if you don't have access to the handicapper's picks, then you will just see the games that the handicappers are on and not the actual picks themselves.
Why am I not receiving Pick Monitor's e-mails?
You must verify your email address before we can send you e-mails. You can do this from your settings page.
Can I delete my account?
Once you have made a pick you cannot delete your account. Pick Monitor serves as a monitor of past results and it would compromise our transparency to delete accounts and wipe away pick history. If you have not yet made a pick and wish to delete your account please contact us.
All Paid Memberships
Does Pick Monitor offer refunds?
We are happy to offer a 100% money-back guarantee on all our subscriptions. Any pro-rated refund on an annual subscription will be based off the full, non-discounted monthly price (eg your refund will be based off of 8 months of payments rather than 12). Individual tips are non-refundable.
For all memberships, a 100% refund will be issued if requested within the first fifteen (15) days of the purchase.
No refunds will be given after the first fifteen (15) days for business memberships.
How do I cancel my Pick Monitor subscription?
Go to My Account and click on cancel your subscription in the transactions section. If you prefer to change your subscription, it is now possible to upgrade/downgrade your subscription. Simply click on Upgrade/Downgrade subscription in your subscription section.
If you'd like to take a minute to let us know why you're canceling that would be totally awesome and helpful, but of course you don't have to.
No matter when you cancel you'll still be able to keep using your subscription until the expiration date.
Do unused pick credits carry over to the next day?
No. Tip credits are replenished each day at 12:00AM Eastern Time. Your pick credits will be reset to the daily limit whether you have used all or none of your tips for the previous day.
Is there a fee to sell my tips on Pick Monitor?
You must be a Business member to sell your tips directly on Pick Monitor. However, there is no fee to sell indirectly. Regardless of how you choose to sell, there is no commission taken by us. The client management tools are also free of charge.
Can I set my own prices?
Yes. We give you four options for selling directly; Six Months, Three Months, One Month and One Week. You may set whatever prices you desire for any or all of these options.
Can I create my own packages?
Currently we are restricting all sales to the four different options mentioned above. If you feel that this is too restrictive please tell us about it in our forums.
I'm a Business Member. How am I paid?
Payments are made directly from the buyer to you. You have the option to accept payment via PayPal and/or Skrill.
If I already have customers can I manage them here?
Yes. With our free Client Management Suite, you can import your clients with ease. You can then run your entire business with just a few clicks per day!
Am I working for Pick Monitor?
No. Pick Monitor doesn't touch your payments in any way and is not involved in your business in any way. Pick Monitor is no more than the web version of a tipster phone book. All business permits, licensing, taxes, etc are entirely on you.
Sports Tip Tracker
Is this a gambling website?
NO! Absolutely no gambling takes place on this website, and we do not endorse gambling in any way, whether legal or illegal. Our sportsbook is a FANTASY sportsbook where you play with FAKE money in order to SIMULATE a real-money sportsbook but without the risk. This is very similar to how the stock market has "virtual stock" games. Sorry for using all-caps, but that was important.
Is there a maximum amount I can "risk" at one time?
You may only have 100 tips in play at any given time.
How long does it take for tips to be graded?
Roughly 97% of tips are graded automatically within 15 minutes of event completion. The remainder of tips must be graded manually, and are generally taken care of within 24 hours of event completion.
Can other users see my tips?
Unless you are a business member your tips may be seen by paying members.
What if I don't want other users to see my tips?
Please consider using private mode which allows only yourself to see your current tips and your past tips. Please note, however, that private mode tips can not be transferred to public mode. Once it's private it stays private forever.
Do I receive money when users view my tips?
If you are a business member you keep 100% of all sales. If you are not a business member then you will not paid when other users see your tips. That said, we put a significant portion of our revenue into contests which pay back the members that help this website be so successful.
Can I wipe my record clean and start over?
You can reset your private (invisible practice mode) record as many times as you want. To reset your private record you must be in private tracking mode. Please go to the fantasy sportsbook and then click the "sportsbook settings" link on the right side of the page. First change the tracking mode to private and then a reset link will appear.
You may not reset your public record.
I accidentally made a pick. Will you delete it for me?
Sorry, but no. Even if you can prove that it was an accident, the answer is still no. Even if you email us within 15 seconds of making the mistake the answer is still no. It's nothing against you, it's just something that we have to be very strict on in order to retain maximize transparency.
I selected the right pick but for the wrong bet size. Will you adjust it for me?
Sorry, but no again. See above.
I forgot to enter a pick. Will you enter it for me?
No yet again. You must think we're very mean by now.
A line isn't listed for a game I want to pick. Can I just email you my pick?
Nope. Even if it's a game we should definitely have, we won't ever manually enter a pick for you. It'd be a boat load of work for us and would create a boat load of doubt about our transparency, so it's not worth it even if it's our fault for not having a game.
Where do you get your lines?
On the page for each game you have a graph displaying "Implied Probability over Time based on Betting Odds". How is that calculated?
We keep a historical record of every time the line moves on every game in our database. The percentages for each team are calculated based on the no-vig lines for each team. For all lines prior to 7/11/14 at 4:45PM the percentages are estimated based only on the line for the home team.
What is REP?
REP is a very simple evaluation of community reputation/participation. It is earned by participating by writing quality content in the forums and it increases your voting power. Users with a high REP score effectivey act as forum moderators.
Why do I have to wait so long between making forum posts?
If your account gets enough downvotes by other members then our computers will automatically throttle the amount that you can post. Very, very few accounts ever experience this. To avoid having this happen to your account please be on your best behavior in the forums and only post things that you genuinely think will add to the community.